Rising temperatures and rising tempers

On an unusually warm Saturday in early November, Brian Gavins, a frequent bus rider, sat at the Willow Lawn bus stop in Henrico, reflecting on a chaotic scene he had just witnessed. The temperature hovered around 57 degrees as the sun dipped below the horizon, casting long shadows across the busy street. 

“Today, actually, on my way to work, two guys got into a fight—not really sure why,” he said. “The bus driver had to pull over and get everyone off, and the two guys boxed it out on the sidewalk for three minutes.” 

Gavins shook his head, and noted how common incidents like this one have become,“The fight that my roommates saw last week, one of the dudes pulled out a knife on the bus,” Gavins said. 

For Gavins and other Richmond area residents who rely on the Greater Richmond Transit Company bus system, such incidents have become routine. City officials are especially concerned by the spike in violent incidents that occurred this past summer. Officials are currently making changes, including expanding the Transit Ambassador Program to enhance safety on buses and at stops and installing more cooling stations. 

The Heat Hypothesis and Urban Challenges

The connection between heat and violence was first explored in the 1960s by Iowa State University researcher Craig A. Anderson. He introduced the “Heat Hypothesis” in 1968, suggesting that high temperatures can increase aggression. His studies analyzed crime data in relation to weather patterns and found that higher temperatures were correlated with an increase in violent incidents. 

The Willow Lawn bus stop, where Brian Gavins frequently waits for the bus, exemplifies the challenges faced in urban heat islands. Commuters at this stop endure higher temperatures due to a lack of shade and cooling infrastructure— conditions that add to the stress of waiting for public transit during hot summer days. Commuters report similar issues at other bus stops. 

On August 1, 2024, Richmond recorded a high temperature of 96 degrees. On that day, a 16-year-old boy was shot in the leg during an altercation on a GRTC bus near Virginia Commonwealth University’s College of Nursing building at North 11th St. and East Leigh St. The 16-year-old survived, but the Richmond Police deployed drones and a K9 unit to search for the suspect. 

Addressing Safety and Infrastructure in Public Transit

“We’re here to get people around safely and effectively,” Henry Bendon, GRTC Communications Specialist, wrote in an email to the Collegian. “We’re adding shelters to keep people cooler or dryer and benches to give them a place to sit.” 

While Bendon said he is proud of the air conditioning and heating facilities on buses, he also acknowledged that sweltering heat and the subsequent tempers are bigger than anything they can solve alone. 

Richmond’s heat-related challenges are so severe that the New York Times published an investigative article on the subject in 2020. It showed how redlining, where people of color were not given access to “preferable” neighborhoods by discriminatory real estate practices, has caused some areas, like the Willow Lawn and VCU bus stops, to become temperature hotspots. Richmond residents in low-income neighborhoods are especially dependent on public transit, yet their neighborhoods suffer from intense heat due to infrastructure failures.

Richmond’s urban heat islands, concentrated in historically low-income neighborhoods, record temperatures up to 16 degrees Fahrenheit higher than areas with more green spaces, said Jeremy Hoffman, a climate and earth scientist at the Science Museum of Virginia. 

Preparing for the Summer Ahead

As Richmond faces a cold winter, the city still wrestles with questions on how to address the challenges of summer heat. Budget constraints have limited the resources available for heat-related transit improvements. For example, in 2020, Richmond reduced its funding to the GRTC by half, requiring additional support from the Central Virginia Transportation Authority to cover gaps. With limited resources, addressing the challenges that come with hotter months has been difficult. 

“As temperatures go up, more people are outside,” Richmond’s Crime Analysis Supervisor, Megan Cruz, said. “In the summer, we see violent crimes spike, and in hotter weather, it tends to affect people. People are angrier when it's hot. We’re aware of the research on urban heat islands and Richmond’s urban layout means low-income areas where a lot of our bus stops are located get hit hardest by the urban heat island effect.”

The Richmond Connects Strategic Plan draft, released in November 2023, outlines ongoing projects needed to make public transit more comfortable, while also acknowledging a shortage of funds to complete the plan. Bendon said the city is making progress, especially on keeping the buses cool in the summer to keep tempers down. Gavins, who witnessed the fistfight, said the improvements were lacking.

“Only some of the buses have air conditioning,” he said. “And during the summer, there’s definitely a lot more shootings and fights.”

For residents like Gavins, the warmer months mean witnessing more fights and even incidents involving weapons on public transit. 

“There are always stories on people fighting,” he said as he boarded a bus. 

Winter offers a break from the intense heat and the violence that lingers with it. But as the cool northeast wind travels, it’s a reminder that this won’t last forever. The city has a chance now to prepare, knowing that summer may bring back the same challenges if nothing changes. 

Contact City & State writer Eshaal Syeda at eshaal.syeda@richmond.edu.