This county has correctly predicted the president for 40 years. This year? It got it wrong.

The accuracy of America’s most respected pollsters is rivaled by a dozen or so counties across America that predict the outcome of elections. Known as bellwethers, these counties consistently vote for the winner of the U.S. presidential election. The longest-lasting bellwether, Clallam County, Washington, has voted for the president-elect since Ronald Reagan’s first term in 1980 — until the 2024 election. 

This year's election yielded surprising results as seven leading bellwether counties lost their titles and voted for Vice President Kamala Harris. Since voting for President-elect Donald Trump, Blaine County, Montana has usurped Clallam as the longest-standing bellwether. 

Counties that swing from party to party are not the only ones to look out for. 

Another group of bellwether counties are Republican-leaning; despite previous decades of voting for the president-elect, they supported Trump in 2020. If the Republican candidate loses them, it is a good indication that they will lose the national election. On the other hand, if the Republican candidate can swing the Democrat-leaning bellwethers, they are poised to win the national election. 

This past election, Harris won the majority of the Democrat-leaning bellwether counties but lost several, including Centre County, Pennsylvania. Her problem was that she was unable to flip a single one that previously went to Trump. 

According to data released by the Clallam County auditor, Harris won the county by a higher margin in 2024 than Biden did in 2020. Despite their predictive abilities, bellwethers are not a perfect reflection of national politics. They have their own active local politics, voter concerns, and population shifts that impact the outcome of elections. Because of this, many in Clallam doubt the permanence of the Democratic Party’s victory.

“I don't see Clallam County turning blue anytime in the near future,” said Pam Blakeman, chair of the Clallam County Republicans. “We had a very high Republican turnout but the Democrats in our state, and many have moved in from California, have now overwhelmed the odds of us winning even if we almost all vote.” 

Some local Democrats claim that the party made mistakes that cost them the national election, even if they won Clallam. 

“They are losing the vote from the people of color. The DNC needs to make some major changes if they want to win their base back,” Makah Tribe leader Nate Tyler said. “The messaging should have been for the working class. The working class is struggling financially, trying to make ends meet.” 

The Makah is a coastal tribe indigenous to the Pacific Northwest. Their reservation, tribal center, and tribal council are located in Clallam County. 

CNN’s exit polls indicated that Trump gained favor with non-white voters compared to 2020, a voter bloc Democrats depend on. According to Tyler’s hypothesis, Clallam County was not as impacted by this shift because, according to census data, the county is over 86% white. 

Whether it was the Democrat’s national or local politics that managed to sway Clallam’s voters, Republicans believe that they can swing the county in the future.

“That by no means would suggest Republicans are going to give up,” Blakeman said. “In fact, there are already a variety of plans to increase the voting that would align with our principles and beliefs largely spelled out in the Constitution and Bill of Rights. Education will be key.”

Whether Clallam will predict future elections or swing to one party permanently remains to be seen. Blaine County, Montana will be the county to look out for the next presidential election. 

Contact city and state writer Maria Byrnes at maria.byrnes@richmond.edu.