Will Virginia swing in the 2024 presidential election?

Most polls point to the 2024 presidential election being a contentious race. The question is whether or not Virginia will have a close election or possibly vote Republican in the presidential election for the first time since 2004. 

President Joe Biden won the state in the 2020 presidential election, and the Democratic Party currently holds a narrow majority in both chambers of the Virginia legislature. Despite this, Gov. Glenn Youngkin flipped the Commonwealth red in 2021, becoming the first Republican to win a gubernatorial election in Virginia since 2009. As of November 2nd, 2024 election polls by The New York Times show Harris ahead by 7%.   

“I think that Virginia has shown over the past decade that it is very much a swing state. It may seem to lean Democrat, but this is generally a more conservative Democrat than [sic] the average Democrat in the entire country,” said Ernest McGowen, a political science professor at the University of Richmond. 

A Henrico County Republican party leader said that Virginia is a swing state and that Youngkin’s victory in 2021 proves it. Henrico Republicans are already looking to the 2025 election cycle, which may be even more competitive than the 2024 presidential election.

The Richmond City Democratic Committee, on the other hand, is confident in its party’s ability to win the state. 

“The moderate, Lincoln Project Republicans will vote for the top of the Democratic ticket. So all in all Virginia will vote overwhelmingly for the top of the ticket,” said Jerome Legions Jr., the chair of Richmond City Democratic Committee.

McGowen said that the RCDC’s confidence isn’t misplaced but not necessarily reflective of the congressional elections. 

“I think the moderate Republicans may vote for Kamala Harris, but in other races, like the Senate or Congress, they will continue to support Republicans,” he said. 

UR students have several tools to track the election progress in Virginia. The non-partisan website FiveThirtyEight draws from a variety of other polls to predict which candidate is leading. As of November 2nd, polls from FiveThirtyEight show that Harris is polling an average of 7% ahead of former President Donald Trump in Virginia. 

While polls can provide some indication, McGowen points out that the high margin of error needs to be taken into account. 

“You can't take a small segment of the population and expect it to mirror everyone you are extrapolating to,” he said. “In addition, asking someone about a future behavior doesn’t mean they will actually do it.” 

Other than monitoring polling statistics, students have many opportunities to get involved with politics on campus. From voting initiatives to the reformation of the College Republicans and the College Democrats, political activity is skyrocketing as most students encounter their first presidential election in college. McGowen advocates for students to keep themselves informed. 

“I would encourage students to get outside of their information bubbles,” McGowen said. “You may not like it, but it is okay to read that negative article about your candidate or share information that may not be flattering, you might just learn something.”

Contact writer Maria Byrnes at maria.byrnes@richmond.edu.