Richmond-VCU preview: 5 burning questions

For the second year in a row, Richmond men’s basketball and Virginia Commonwealth University will meet in the quarterfinals of the Atlantic 10 tournament. Also for the second year in a row, Mat Shelton of VCU Ram Nation and I address some of the burning questions heading into the Brooklyn version of the Black and Blue Classic:

Richmond has already defeated the Rams twice this season. What does VCU need to do differently to knock off the Spiders?

Mat Shelton: VCU went a combined 6-39 from three-point range in their two games against Richmond this season. I may have graduated from a tiny art school on Broad Street, but even my math tells me that sucks. Overall, VCU's offense has gone into the toilet over their last five games. I honestly can't remember a time when VCU has been this cold from the floor, so clearly something must change tomorrow if the Rams want to get past a Spiders squad that is top-five in both offensive and defensive efficiency in A-10 play. MUST. HIT. SHOTS. A cold three-point night from Richmond would certainly help.

Jack Nicholson: I totally agree, Mat. VCU’s horrendous three-point shooting against the Spiders played a huge part in Richmond’s two wins this year. What doesn’t bode well for VCU, however, is how the Spiders have defended the 3-pointer as of late. Opponents are shooting just 18.7 percent from deep against the Spiders during Richmond’s recent six-game winning streak. Another area VCU needs to improve: rebounding. Richmond has out-rebounded the Rams 79-71 this year, which is surprising given the Spiders are last in the Atlantic 10 in rebounding margin.

The Richmond Times-Dispatch reported Richmond center Alonzo Nelson-Ododa would play Friday after missing the last eight games. How big of a boost is this for Richmond?

MS: I feel like I've been a bigger Nelson-Ododa fan than most Richmond fans for some time now (based off what I've read on SpiderNation.com). His ability to protect the paint for the Spiders adds another dimension to an already tough D. His defense and that added depth is crucial in a tournament setting, where Richmond will need to win three games in three days. That said, I think we're all curious how his return to the lineup will affect that chemistry that's been so effective over these past six games.

JN: Worst case, this news offers an emotional boost for Richmond. Best case, Nelson-Ododa’s interior defense is what pushes Richmond to an Atlantic 10 championship. So either way his return is great news. The big question: How effective will he be after missing more than a month? John O’Connor reported that Nelson-Ododa would likely get limited minutes Friday, but any contribution from the shot blocker will be a nice addition to a Spider team that’s already rolling. And like Mat said, that added depth will be crucial in a tournament setting. Also, check out Nelson-Ododa rocking eye goggles in practice. Now that's style. I’m guessing we will see them tomorrow.

Other than each team’s Atlantic 10 first-team selection -- Kendall Anthony for the Spiders and Treveon Graham for VCU – who needs to have a big game for each team?

MS: The first player that comes to my mind for VCU is Melvin Johnson because, his buckets usually come with an extra point. But I'd really love to see JeQuan Lewis fill up the stat sheet with both points and assists and get other guys involved. Point-guard play goes a long way toward increasing those shooting percentages for the Rams. As I've said, VCU has been ice cold these past five games. Lewis has had more turnovers than assists in each of those five games. Coincidence?

JN: For Richmond, ShawnDre' Jones could be the X-factor. For one, Jones’ lights-out shooting forces defenses to spread out when he’s on the floor, creating driving lanes for slashers like Anthony and Terry Allen. Also, Jones will have to help Anthony handle VCU’s high-pressure defense. Even without Briante Weber, VCU forced Richmond into 18 turnovers the last time these two teams met. The first step to beating VCU is weathering its Havoc defense, and some of that responsibility will fall on Jones’ shoulders.

Would a Richmond win be enough to push the Spiders into the bubble discussion?

MS: I think they are in the bubble discussion now (albeit on the wrong side of it), but things get real with another win over VCU. I'm not sure what that would do to the Rams' RPI, but either way that's three top-50 wins, maybe three top-25 wins. I think what hurts Richmond is VCU hasn't looked like the best version of themselves lately, so depending on the Rams for all your best wins might not go as far with the committee as it would had VCU survived against La Salle and St. Bonaventure when Graham was out, and had they pulled off that win against Dayton toward the end of the season. I think realistically Richmond probably needs to make it to the title game to be in the real mix.

JN: Right now, I see Richmond as being just on the edge of the bubble, meaning the Spiders have work to do to get on the right side of the bubble. Although the Spiders played well in their Atlantic 10 schedule, early season losses to James Madison and Wake Forest are starting to hang over Richmond. Like Mat said, Richmond needs to reach the title game to have a legitimate shot at an at-large berth, but as Joe Lunardi, ESPN’s Bracketologist, told the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Richmond probably needs to win the tournament to land a spot in the 68-team field.

Prediction: Who wins and why?

MS: When asked about VCU's shooting issues in tonight's post-game interview, VCU head coach Shaka Smart replied by saying the floodgates will open and the shots will start to fall. I'm a numbers guy, so observing the trend of the post-Briante VCU, it really becomes hard to honestly/realistically believe that. I thought that was the case a few games ago. However, after struggling against Fordham tonight (all-be-it an improved Fordham team, and Spider fans knows exactly what I'm talking about), I'm still a skeptic. I agree that it's tough to beat a team three times, but I think Richmond has got to be the favorite tomorrow based on how both teams are playing. That said, zero pressure on VCU at this point (fair or not, they are officially a NCAA tourney lock), a chance to get revenge, yada yada yada. Total coin flip, I have no clue who actually wins.

JN: Sorry Richmond fans, but the third time will be the charm for VCU. There’s no way VCU can shoot as poorly from deep as it has in its first two games against the Spiders this year. Like Mat said, Richmond will be in desperation mode whereas the Rams have already secured their spot in the Big Dance, so that need-to-win mentality makes me think Richmond will make this a 40-minute battle. But in the end, the Rams will be the ones smiling after the game.

Contact Sports Editor Charlie Broaddus at: charlie.broaddus@richmond.edu