Most students favor Obama, new Collegian survey shows

Nearly 52 percent of University of Richmond undergraduate students favor Barack Obama over John McCain for president, while the number of students who identify as Democrats, Republicans and Independents is virtually the same, according to a survey conducted last week by The Collegian.

Obama carried a 20 percent advantage over McCain in the survey, results that are comparable to the 20 percent advantage Obama has among 18- to 25-year-olds in Virginia.

Obama and McCain are tied in state polls, just one month outside of the election, but the latest survey from The Associated Press, released yesterday, showed Obama had surged 7 percentage points ahead of McCain nationally. That result comes amid growing fear over the crisis in the U.S. financial markets.

The 7 percent difference between Democrats and Republicans on the Richmond campus -- 33 percent to 26 percent -- may indicate a shift in Democratic Party identification among students from four years ago, said Dan Palazzolo, professor of political science.

Party politics aside, about 50 percent of respondents considered their overall political views to be moderate, while 29 percent said liberal and 18 percent said conservative.

About three-quarters of students are following the election at least "somewhat closely," and most report reading or watching election news at least a few times per week.

Of students watching campaign news on cable a few times a week or more, 24 percent get their news from CNN, 8 percent from Fox News, 6 percent from MSNBC and 34 percent from some combination.

About 20 percent of respondents say they're following the election very closely, 52 percent say somewhat closely, 22 percent say not too closely, and 6 percent say they aren't following it closely at all. Seventy-two percent said they were "absolutely certain to vote" on Election Day.

When asked about their opinion of all four candidates, both McCain and Obama were viewed favorably in a majority of responses. But about 58 percent of the survey's 348 respondents said they had either an unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin.

"I am struck by the unfavorable ratings for Palin," Palazzolo said. Other polls have shown Palin's support nationwide has eroded since her jolt to McCain's campaign following the Republican National Convention.

Meanwhile, opinions of Democratic vice presidential candidate Joe Biden were split between those who viewed him favorably and those who had no opinion. The latter response could indicate that the media's intense coverage of Palin has pulled attention away from Biden, who is a more experienced politician.

Palin has been heavily scrutinized by some Republican politicians and members of the news media, including an increasing number of conservative pundits who say she lacks the experience to be McCain's running mate and should step down. She will spar with Biden at 9 p.m. tonight in the only vice presidential debate before the Nov. 4 general election.

The race in Virginia is close with just one month until the election. The number of students registered to vote in Virginia -- 34 percent, according to The Collegian's poll -- is double the population of Virginia students attending the university, Palazzolo said. That could mean students either see voting in Virginia as more convenient than voting absentee at home, or they realize that their votes may count for much more here, he said.

"The results make me optimistic that the youth vote will indeed make a difference this year," Darius Rasheed Nazeri, president and coordinator of UR Students for Barack Obama, wrote in an e-mail.

Jarrett Dieterle, a member of Richmond's John McCain group, said the results came from Obama's consistent "rhetoric of 'change' and 'vision.'"

"College students seem more inspired by promises for something different or the hope of a movement they can rally behind," Dieterle wrote in an e-mail. "A lot of people in the Obama camp would be up in arms if they heard me claim that ... but there has to be some correlation given the polls."

The differences between out-of-state and in-state voters are striking. About 6 percent of respondents live outside Virginia, are registered here and plan to vote for McCain. That pales in comparison to the 18 percent of respondents who live out of state, are registered to vote here and plan to vote for Obama, which is an indication that his campaign's widespread organization throughout the state -- he has 43 field offices to McCain's 24 -- and concerted efforts to register young voters are working.

The e-mail blitz from the Obama campaign has increased in recent weeks as the Oct. 6 deadline for registering nears in Virginia, where votes are critically important because the state is one of a handful nationwide that could swing for either Obama or McCain. The Commonwealth's 13 electoral votes haven't gone to a Democrat since 1964, but with the voters in Northern Virginia voting increasingly Democratic -- shown by Democratic Sen. Jim Webb's victory in 2006 and Gov. Timothy Kaine's win in 2004 -- it will be close, pundits say.

The Collegian's poll was conducted online from Sept. 23 to 28 and was sent to 500 randomly selected undergraduates, 348 of whom responded. The respondents excluded those studying abroad and students temporarily studying at Richmond from another country, but included international students seeking a degree here. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

The Collegian is currently conducting a separate poll about election issues and is surveying 500 undergraduates eligible to vote.

Contact staff writer Dan Petty at dan.petty@richmond.edu